WASHINGTON – Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned North Korea yesterday that the launch of a long-range ballistic missile would be “a very serious matter and indeed a provocative act” that would “deepen its isolation.”
Condoleezza Rice
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Rice's remarks, made at a news conference yesterday with the Spanish foreign minister, were the latest in a series of warnings to Pyongyang not to end a 1999 self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile testing.
Ever since U.S. spy satellites detected signs of launch preparation, U.S. diplomats have been trying to coordinate statements with four foreign counterparts who have participated in what are known as the “six-party talks” with North Korea.
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, a close U.S. ally, said in Tokyo yesterday that Japan “would have to respond harshly” if there was a missile test.
Australia called on the North Korean ambassador to cancel any test and to return immediately to the six-nation talks over the North's nuclear program.
“North Korea would be gravely mistaken if it thinks that a missile test would improve its bargaining position in the six-party talks,” Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said in a statement.
But Chinese and South Korean officials have privately indicated they are more flexible about the meaning of the missile moratorium and might be more willing to accept North Korean explanations, U.S. officials said. South Korean officials, skeptical about U.S. intelligence, have suggested that because North Korea has been so public about the preparations, it is more likely trying to launch a satellite, not conduct a military test.
U.S officials have closely studied intelligence that suggests North Korea may be preparing a test of a Taepodong-2 missile from a remote village on North Korea's northeast coast. But three senior U.S. officials said Sunday and yesterday that reports that North Korea appeared to have completed fueling the missile are based on incomplete intelligence.
U.S. satellites have observed liquid fuel canisters being placed near the missile, but officials said there was no confirmation that fueling actually had taken place. “We can't say anything for sure,” said one top official with access to the intelligence.
A North Korean state television broadcast, monitored in Seoul, said nothing about whether the North intended to test-launch a long-range missile. But the report cited a Russian editorial on the subject and said the North “has the due right to have a missile that can immediately halt the United States' reckless aerial espionage activity.”
The North has repeatedly complained in recent weeks about alleged U.S. spy planes watching its activities.
The six-nation talks seeking to end North Korea's nuclear programs in exchange for economic and political incentives have been stalled since the fall.
North Korea has refused to return to the talks unless the United States lifts a crackdown on North Korean businesses, and on financial institutions that do business with them. The U.S. Treasury Department has been cracking down on North Korean counterfeiting of U.S. dollars.
U.S. officials have searched for ways to lure North Korea back to the talks, but Rice suggested that a test would result in a push to bring new sanctions against Pyongyang.
A test “would once again show North Korea determined to deepen its isolation, determined not to take a path that is a path of compromise and a path of peace, but rather instead to once again saber-rattle,” Rice said. “It would be a very serious matter indeed.”
Rice said a launch would be an “abrogation of obligations” in the missile moratorium, adding that it was also part of the agreement last September that set out the negotiating principles for the disarmament talks.
U.S. allies in the region have pressed the Bush administration to try harder to bring North Korea back to the talks, including a halt of the financial crackdown.
During Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to Washington in April, President Bush privately reaffirmed that the United States was committed to the six-nation talks but would not end the Treasury Department actions, a senior U.S. official said.
Loading fuel into the rocket boosters for the Taepodong-2 missile almost certainly suggests a launch will take place, because it is difficult to siphon the fuel back out. But North Korea has a long history of doing things simply for the benefit of U.S. satellites – and to bring the world's attention back to the Stalinist state.
A year ago, the world was on edge after reports that North Korea might test a nuclear weapon – and one report even suggested the evidence showed that viewing stands had been built. No test took place.
Three years ago, Pyongyang laid out missiles near a parade route so they could be seen by satellites, which also resulted in news stories about the potentially provocative act. But North Korea never displayed the missiles publicly during the parade.
Because of cloud cover and high altitude wind patterns, officials believe the earliest a potential missile launch could occur would be tomorrow.
Experts disagree on the likely range of the Taepodong-2, with estimates running as high as 9,000 miles – far enough to hit the west coast of the U.S. mainland and U.S. Pacific bases.
Rep. Mark Kirk, R.-Ill., who has specialized in North Korean issues and made two trips to that country, said the actual range is unknown because the current version of the rocket has a large, new lower booster. Regardless of whether the rocket has two or three stages, Kirk said, its current state “represents a dramatic increase in range.”
If North Korea does launch the rocket on a trajectory that carries it over Japan, Kirk added, “it is expected to have a large impact on the Japanese public,” and likely would push Japan to be even more closely aligned with the United States on defense issues.
In a 1998 test, North Korea fired a Taepodong-1, which flew over Japan before landing in the Pacific. North Korea agreed to a moratorium on long-range missile testing in 1999, and has not tested one since.
The New York Times News Service and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
