The stress may be too much for many of us. In the space of a single week, we've been asked to believe that Tom DeLay, Lewis “Scooter” Libby and Judas Iscariot were all really good guys.
Any fair-minded person might take a pass on Judas, the long-purported traitor in the Garden of Gethsemane. And who knows? Biblical scholars digging back 2,000 years could be on to something. But voting trends in San Diego's conservative North County suggest that the other two, and countless like them, are still under the gun.
Tuesday's test was the primary in a special election to replace the dishonored 50th District congressman, Randy “Duke” Cunningham. And Francine Busby, a neighborly type whose partisan experience had been limited to one sacrificial run against Cunningham, finished so far ahead of her party's registration as to pose a real threat in the runoff. A final count from Tuesday will show her tantalizingly close to the 44 percent most experts agreed she'd need to make it the rest of the way.
Heady stuff, this. A scramble on the Republican side to fill Cunningham's discarded moccasins came down to old vs. new. Left standing as the tabulation neared completion was ex-Congressman Brian Bilbray. Though a popular public figure, Bilbray may not meet the “new era” designation that many of the Duke's erstwhile constituents, both left and right, are seeking.
On TV Tuesday night, as his lead appeared to be holding, Bilbray spoke confidently of a “harmony” meeting already planned by the GOP's San Diego leadership. The aim is to assure and solidify the support by 13 defeated candidates for Bilbray's candidacy. Test polling had correctly shown his likeliest rival to be the free-spending ($1.8 million) political newcomer, Eric Roach. And it has not escaped attention that the final days of their race led to some of the well-advertised bitterness familiar to modern campaigning.
“Hit pieces,” that is. Noted, too, was Roach's endorsement by ex-Rep. Ron Packard of Carlsbad, once a Bilbray colleague in Washington. This seemed a sign that Mormon Church leaders were prepared to stump for Roach as avidly as they had done to achieve Packard's historic write-in triumph 24 years ago.
That 1982 coup was one for the record books. In the primary to replace retiring Rep. Clair Burgener (one of the finest public servants ever), Republican voters nominated a young millionaire named Johnny Crean. Somewhat appalled, Mormon leaders organized a long-shot write-in on behalf of Carlsbad's mayor, Packard – and succeeded. In two centuries of U.S. history, this was only the fourth win by a write-in.
The showing this week by Roach, who was almost unknown when Cunningham's seat came open, seems comparable. His heavy spending alone could not have done it. Indeed, the vote totals of two other millionaire candidates almost equally free with a checkbook – William Hauf and Alan Uke – both fell below the current interest rate on a savings account.
It will doubtless please media detractors to note that Bilbray, endorsed choice of The San Diego Union-Tribune, had to fight for his life to prevail on the Republican side Tuesday. But wait, except for the superb investigative reporting of Copley News Service Washington bureau ace Marcus Stern, there would have been no special election. And good ol' boy Cunningham would still be using House stationery to calculate his share of the swag.
Those other Republican candidates are all big boys, and will doubtless remain on reasonably amicable terms. But politicians cannot always speak for the folks who supported them. The runoff result on June 6 will be determined across all 365 square miles of this 50th Congressional District. It boasts a high educational level, with a per capita income $15,000 greater than any area surrounding it.
Conservative, yes. But in the well-remembered words of Eleanor Roosevelt, these are “extraordinary times.” How many will put concerns of the moment above party? How many will be motivated to work their precinct? And to what extent will their judgment be swayed – perhaps repelled – by the cascades of cash we shall see from out of state?
The old bromide – that this race will be closely watched – hardly tells the story. More than anything else, perhaps, the likelihood of change in America's national direction will be influenced by the contest between two ordinary and essentially decent people, Brian Bilbray and Francine Busby. Right here in River City.
Let's hope all that cash, and the campaign consultants it buys, don't mess things up.
Van Deerlin represented a San Diego County district in Congress for 18 years.
